The Demographic Decline is South Korea’s Biggest Crisis

By Saamiya Laroia

From 1960 to 2000, the South Korean economy gathered incredible momentum, reaching a 7.9% annual GDP growth (ADB, 2016). However, South Korea’s growth has begun to lose momentum in recent years, with annual GDP growth dropping to 4.1% in 2021, with the OECD projecting an even further decline to 2% in 2023 and 2024 (OECD, 2021). One of the most major drags on its growth is the looming demographic crisis brought on by low fertility rates, and a growing share of the elderly population coupled with a severe labour shortage and post-Covid economic deceleration. 

In 2022, the country’s birth rate sank to a record low, with South Korean women having an expected fertility rate of 0.78 (Mcurry, 2023). This is an extremely low fertility rate, and South Korea is now the only country with a fertility rate under 1. Experts project that the rate needs to be above 2.1 to maintain a stable population (ibid). This new record low is a sign that the government is failing to address the situation despite $200 billion being spent in the last 16 years according to current president Yoon Suk Yeol. His administration’s plan to solve the crisis is spearheaded by an initiative to increase the amount of ‘parental allowance’ given by the government, from $230 monthly per child under 1 year old to $765 by 2024 (Ashley, 2023) . 

This will be bolstered by additional measures to provide financial support to low-income households earning under 60% of the national median income. 

In December of 2022, the government announced a fourth series of measures (after the measures of 2019, 2020 and 2021) to combat the population decline, including minimising career breaks for women, aiming for a better work-life balance and more affordable housing (Yonhap, 2022). The lack of work-life balance, skyrocketing costs of housing and a bleak housing market all contribute to the lack of desire to have children, especially in a hyper-competitive society and in the desolate economic aftermath of the pandemic years. However, it doesn’t appear that there have been actual concrete changes in any of these areas. In January of 2023, South Korea logged the smallest job increase in 2 years due to the hike in interest rates, a labour market affected by the worsening demographic crisis and a sharp decline in exports (semiconductor exports fell by 45%) due to global economic slowdown.

The government came under fire recently as a plan to increase maximum working hours from 52 to 69 was considered in early March as a counter-intuitive plan to solve fertility rate problems (Montgomery, 2023) The reasoning behind this plan was that overtime hours could be traded for time off that would give families more time for childcare. However, it is a reasoning that doesn’t hold up in the context of South Korea being the one of the most overworked developed countries in the world according to a recent OECD report. Its workers logged 199 more hours than OECD averages in 2021 with an average of 1915 hours worked. Other developed countries such as Finland and the UK have shown that a shorter 4 day work week maintained productivity while increasing work life balance significantly. While the government is rethinking the plan after the backlash, it is clear that their market-oriented policies are not aligned with the welfare focus needed to combat the crisis holistically. 

The housing crisis also persists and will likely continue to worsen significantly as long as the 14 year rate high of 3.5% increases borrowing costs. The dire consequences of these inflated asset prices are strongly exacerbated in South Korea due to high household debt rates of 206% of disposable income in 2021 and the irregular jeonse system where tenants are required to provide lump sums that can be as high as 60-80% of the property value to be returned after 2 years (The Economist, 2023).

A monthly cash-handout will not be enough to make a dent in the growing demographic crisis. South Korea's government needs to take a multi-dimensional approach to policy-making that addresses the root institutional and societal causes of declining fertility rates. With a pension fund set to run out by 2055, the government needs to make urgent and encompassing labour market reforms. The OECD has reported that Korea’s public finances are sound enough to strengthen social welfare and protection institutions while maintaining “cost-effective, employment-friendly and efficiently financed” public spending (OECD, 2018). The Presidential Committee on Aging Society and Population Policy task forces must also be given more active and high-level roles. The government must treat the demographic crisis as South Korea’s principal priority in the face of the potential economic consequences of a Japanification which would entail decades of growth slumps and deflationary outcomes. 

References

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Mcurry, Justin. “South Korea's Birthrate Sinks to Fresh Record Low as Population Crisis Deepens.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 22 Feb. 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/22/south-koreas-birthrate-sinks-to-fresh-record-low-as-population-crisis-deepens. 

Ahn, Ashley. “South Korea Has the World's Lowest Fertility Rate, a Struggle with Lessons for Us All.” NPR, NPR, 19 Mar. 2023, https://www.npr.org/2023/03/19/1163341684/south-korea-fertility-rate. 

Han-na, Park. “South Korea Logs Smallest Job Gain in 2 Years.” Asia News Network, 16 Feb. 2023, https://asianews.network/south-korea-logs-smallest-job-gain-in-2-years/. 

곽영섭 . “S. Korea Unveils Steps to Tackle Demographic Change.” Yonhap News Agency, 곽영섭, 28 Dec. 2022, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20221228002700320. 

Montgomery, Hanako “Asia's Most Overworked Country Wants to Improve Work-Life Balance-by Raising Work Hours.” VICE, 24 Mar. 2023, https://www.vice.com/en/article/wxjqyb/south-korea-69-hour-work-week. 

Livemint. “South Korea's 69-Hour Work Week Plan Faces Backlash from Youth; Here's Why.” Mint, 19 Mar. 2023, https://www.livemint.com/news/world/south-korea-s-69-hour-work-week-plan-faces-backlash-from-youth-here-s-why-11679220464624.html. 

 “South Korea's Housing Crunch Offers a Warning for Other Countries.” The Economist, The Economist Newspaper, https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/02/09/south-koreas-housing-crunch-offers-a-warning-for-other-countries. 

“The Challenge of Population Ageing in Korea.” OECD Library, OECD, 24 Oct 2018   https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/9789264208261-5-en/index.html?itemId=%2Fcontent%2Fcomponent%2F9789264208261-5-en. 

OECD. (2022, November 22). Korea projection note OECD Economic Outlook November 2022. OECD. Retrieved May 1, 2023, from https://issuu.com/oecd.publishing/docs/korea-oecd-economic-outlook-projection-note-novemb