The Exodus of Nagorno-Karabakh Refugees

By Kevin Chen

Abstract

The Nagorno-Karabakh region, historically contested between Armenia and Azerbaijan, has once again emerged as a hotbed of conflict and humanitarian crisis. Azerbaijan's invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh and blockade of the Lachin Corridor have led to massive displacement, geopolitical tensions, and questions regarding the sanctity of ceasefire agreements and international law. This analysis examines the multi-faceted dimensions of the conflict and international responses. This study further underscores a need for a comprehensive international inquiry into violations of international law, aiming towards a sustainable resolution that safeguards the rights and security of all affected populations in the region.

Background

On September 27, 2020, at 8:10 local time, Azerbaijani armed forces launched a full-scale counteroffensive under the pretense of an alleged Armenian artillery shelling of Azerbaijani army positions along the entire border. This conflict marked the start of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, with Azerbaijan seizing this opportunity to regain territories lost to Armenia since the end of the First Nagorno-Karabakh War in 1994. Boasting a better-equipped army and a new series of modern weaponry—ranging from drones to long-range armaments supplied by Turkey and Israel—Azerbaijan quickly overwhelmed Armenian forces and retook the Hadrut, Kashatagh, and Zangilan provinces, south of Nagorno-Karabakh’s capital, Stepanakert (Gatopoulos, 2020). 

The conflict lasted for 44 days, ending when the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, and the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, signed a ceasefire agreement on November 9, 2020. Both the Armenian and Azerbaijani Ministries of Defense reported thousands killed in the fighting and tens of thousands more displaced (Al Jazeera, 2020). A fragile ceasefire, brokered and maintained by Russian peacekeepers, has attempted to preserve peace until the present year.

New Azerbaijani Offensive

In September 2023, over 100,000 ethnic Armenians evacuated Nagorno-Karabakh after Azerbaijani forces launched an “anti-terrorist” campaign in Nagorno-Karabakh on September 19th (Lister et al., 2023). The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense justified this campaign, claiming Armenians planted landmines that killed four Azerbaijani police officers and two civilians. This offensive followed an Azerbaijani blockade of the Lachin Corridor, Nagorno-Karabakh's only connecting route to Armenia, severing the 120,000 residents’ food supply for several months. Supported by heavy artillery bombardment against Nagorno-Karabakh military positions, Azerbaijani forces recaptured the region within 24 hours.

On September 20, the ethnic Armenian leadership in Nagorno-Karabakh agreed to a ceasefire with Azerbaijan, which would include disarming Nagorno-Karabakh and commencing talks to reintegrate the region into Azerbaijan. In a speech on September 18, Aliyev said Armenian forces had begun to hand over their weapons and were withdrawing from the region. He assured that Nagorno-Karabakh’s 120,000 Armenians would be able to participate in Azerbaijani elections, receive state education, and freely practice their Christianity in his Muslim-majority nation. Azerbaijan also demanded the surrender of former Nagorno-Karabakh state and military leaders (Light & Osborn, 2023).

Foreign nations have also done little to prevent the invasion and collapse of Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia, who intervened after the Second Nagorno-Karabakh war to maintain peace and established a Russian peacekeeping force, has been silent in criticizing Baku and Aliyev. In responding to the criticisms by Armenians, the Russian Defense Ministry broadcast footage of Russian peacekeepers providing aid and shelter to evacuating Karabakh Armenians, as well as reporting Azerbaijan’s numerous ceasefire violations prior to September 19 (Nagorno Karabakh Observer, 2023). However, Pashinyan criticized Russia for not alerting Armenia about Azerbaijan’s plans for the attack as Azerbaijan launched the ground operation to subject Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh to ethnic cleansing.

Turkey is also complicit in Azerbaijan’s attack on Nagorno-Karabakh. On September 25, four days after the official ceasefire, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Aliyev in Nakhichevan to discuss a groundbreaking ceremony for a military logistics center and a natural gas pipeline (Zaman, 2023). The meeting, however, was intentional and provocative as Azerbaijan plans to establish the Zangezur land corridor, which grants unconditional access for Nakhichevan to the Azerbaijani mainland across Armenian land. Armenia is vehemently opposed to this as it would cut off Armenia from its sole ally, Iran, in the region.

The EU, particularly Germany, has done little to stop Azerbaijani aggression. The German Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock condemned Azerbaijan’s attack on September 22, calling on Baku to cease its military operations once and for all at the UN Security Council meeting (Armenpress, 2023). Nonetheless, the EU has been cautious due to their reliance on Azerbaijani oil and natural gas, necessitated by the sanctions on Russian energy, hence condemning Baku but taking no action against them.

The US stands in an unfortunate but similar position. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken tweeted on September 19, calling out Azerbaijan in a tweet saying, “Azerbaijan’s unacceptable military actions risk worsening the humanitarian situation in Nagorno-Karabakh. We call for immediate end to hostilities and for direct dialogue” (Blinken, 2023). Blinken has yet to condemn Azerbaijani aggression as they have a role in containing Iran. The situation is further exacerbated by federal corruption charges against US Senator Bob Menendez; his departure as the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee represents a major setback to the Armenians due to his home constituents consisting of many ethnic Armenians (Zaman, 2023).

Protests have emerged throughout Armenia as many political opponents to Pashinyan have called for his resignation and protesters are demanding that the government should do more for Karabakh Armenians. However, Armenia sits at an impasse. The deteriorating relationship between Armenia and Russia in the prior weeks to the invasion led to the inaction of Russia in not only stopping Azerbaijan’s plans but also informing Pashinyan of the attack. The NATO allies that Armenia tried to cater to have not punished Aliyev’s blatant aggression.

The Exodus

Just as both nations negotiated a ceasefire on September 20, thousands of Karabakh Armenians swarmed the Stepanakert Airport in an unclear attempt whether or not to leave the country. Since December 2022, Nagorno-Karabakh has been under a nine-month blockade, with its civilians lacking basic products, and reports of starvation among the people. Per the 2020 ceasefire agreement, no Armenian forces have been in Nagorno-Karabakh (Light & Osborn, 2023). The Armenian leadership has publicly acknowledged that they do not seek confrontation with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh and effectively handed it to Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan has promised to integrate Nagorno-Karabakh as well as protect the rights of Armenians, but also says they are free to leave if they prefer. This runs into a problem as the only road out of Nagorno-Karabakh and into Armenia goes through the Lachin Corridor, and reports of long lines of traffic have created an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. As the Lachin Corridor was previously blocked off to civilian traffic, Armenia has asked the International Court of Justice to order Azerbaijan to ensure free movement through the corridor leading to and from Nagorno-Karabakh (Reuters, 2023).

The crisis becomes even more dire as Armenia is ill-prepared for a mass exodus of 100 thousand refugees - space had been prepared for only 40,000 people. By September 29, more than 84,700 people had crossed into Armenia (Reuters, 2023). Cities and towns across Armenia have created makeshift shelters to accommodate the refugees. More are still arriving (Marchand, 2023).

On October 1st, a United Nations mission, the first to access Nagorno-Karabakh in 30 years, arrived amidst the ongoing mass exodus. Led by the UN’s Resident Coordinator in Azerbaijan, the team found no damage to public infrastructure, including hospitals and schools. However, they learned from local contacts that between 50 and 1000 ethnic Armenians remain in the Karabakh region (United Nations, 2023).

Implications

Azerbaijan’s new offensive into Nagorno-Karabakh in September is a clear violation of Armenia’s territorial sovereignty and international humanitarian law from the 10-month blockade. The use of force has caused untold hardship for the 120 thousand ethnic Armenians who inhabited Nagorno-Karabakh, and the mass exodus continues. The treatment of ethnic Armenians under the new Azerbaijani rule should be held under tight scrutiny by international observers to prevent the possibility of an ethnic cleansing.

Foreign actors such as Russia and Turkey cannot escape the criticisms of facilitating Azerbaijan’s attack and occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh without taking into consideration ethnic Armenians. Both the inaction and support from the international community have emboldened Azerbaijan to continue its hostilities against a weakened Armenia and to enact Azerbaijan’s plans to establish the Zangezur Corridor under Azerbaijani rule.

It is likely Azerbaijan uses the passivity from Russia and support from Turkey to continue its campaign against Armenia. The two years since the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War have taught that Azerbaijan uses the pretense of making peace on the international stage in order to gain an advantage where Armenia least expects it. However, there is a limit to the appeasement and many countries, including Iran, have stated a clear red line where action will be taken if Azerbaijan were to go too far.

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