An Open Door: Implications of Recent Latin American Elections for Greater Foreign Influence

By Larkin Gallup

I.          Introduction

         When Chile’s legislature passed a bill legalizing same-sex marriage in the traditionally conservative country in December 2021, it was to people around the world a signal of hope, a changing tide not just in Chile but in countries across Latin America. This sign of hope was then complemented by Gabriel Boric’s election to the Presidency just a few weeks later, given Boric’s election represents to many people a new, more vital left that is sweeping the nation and the region. Historically, leftism in Latin America has not been well-received, especially by the United States and Europe. Even now, decades after Pinochet's infamous reign, the United States is beginning to prick its ears to the recent elections in Latin America that stray further and further from their preferred conservatism. However, in the new decade, the United States is not the only one paying attention.

         China, for the better part of the last decade, has been seeking investment opportunities for its Belt and Road Initiative, an infrastructure project promising to connect the world via greater trade routes. The nation is paying attention to the political trends in Latin America that may make the region’s leaders more amenable to Chinese funding and influence, given the political ideals of both parties are beginning to align more. So, as these elections represent a much-needed reckoning for the region itself, they also represent two great powers coming together in a struggle for geopolitical influence, a tale that has been told for the better part of the 20th century and that rarely ends well for the influenced. This piece will firstly explore the recent surge of leftism and its implications within the region, before seeking to understand the relative merits of China’s Belt and Road Initiative in contrast to past US influence in the region. It finally recommends that Latin American leaders remain open to Chinese funding and infrastructure projects but be wary of the risks as well as the possibility of angering the United States.

 

II.        Overview of Recent Leftism in Latin America

         Chile’s recent election is one of the most notable in the recent trend towards leftism. Gabriel Boric, at 35, is the youngest president Chile has ever had, and certainly one of the most left-leaning. He defeated Jose Kast, a noted conservative, and was able to garner massive levels of support by promising to target Chile’s existing economic model, whose critics argue has caused inequality in the effort towards economic growth. (Aljazeera) Boric gained prominence as a student activist in the southern areas of Chile and had joined Congress by 2014. Now, youth in Chile are hopeful that Boric will continue the trend of more socially liberal policies. While Boric has lofty promises, it is also important to realize that the far-right is still a major part of Chilean politics and compromises will certainly have to be made if Boric wants to achieve any part of his ambitious agenda.

         Another important election was in Honduras, where democratic socialist Xiomara Castro claimed victory in November of last year. Her win in the election put an end to the twelve-year stint in power that the conservative National Party had enjoyed and was claimed by her party as an “end to authoritarianism.” (NPR) Castro, since her win, has promised an open dialogue with the Honduran people, and a strong recovery from the past two hurricanes and enduring corruption and gang violence. However, recent internal strife within her party may undermine the effectiveness of her term. A group of lawmakers rebelled from inside party lines as a reaction to Castro’s pick for a Congressional speaker, laying bare a weakness that the National Party could exploit to take back control of the country.

         Bolivia was a part of the beginnings of this trend, with its election in October of 2020 yielding Luis Arce as the winner. Arce ran under leftist Evo Morales’s Movimiento al Socialismo, and defeated centrist former president Carlos Mesa. (The Guardian) Arce is taking control at an especially monumental time for Bolivia, when massive stores of lithium have been discovered in the country. Lithium is essential to producing electric car batteries and is a commodity that is growing, seemingly endlessly, in value - with some calling it white gold, or white oil. Major economic players in the United States, Europe, and China are turning their eyes towards lithium in a sort of new gold rush, and the politics of its leadership will play a massive role in the sort of foreign investment and exploitation of this resource that is allowed.

Argentina is awaiting its next election, and in terms of politics, faces an opposite decision as Bolivia did nearly two years ago, between conservatism and centrism. While current president Alberto Fernandez is center-left, his opposition is further right and hopes to take the country into a new era of modernization. Although the election has not yet happened, the results in the primaries which significantly leaned towards the opposition may represent an opposing example to the general trend towards leftism in Latin America.

         Nicaragua also stands out from the general trend highlighted in this article. In November of 2021, Daniel Ortega once again claimed victory in the national elections, even as critics labeled the elections a sham (NPR). United States president Joe Biden called the election a pantomime. As such, this recent election is not an accurate measure of the sentiments of the people and their political affiliation. However, in terms of governance, Nicaragua looks to continue on its same track of avoiding foreign influence, especially that of the United States.

 

III.      Leftism as an Open Door to China’s Influence

China officially launched its Belt and Road Initiative in September of 2013, and since then has mobilized hundreds of billions of dollars in capital in the form of loans and infrastructure investment. The project was earmarked to primarily connect Eurasia through overland physical infrastructure, but since then has expanded to ocean-based trade, as well as to other regions in the world. By 2017, China had added both the Caribbean and Latin America as an extension of the BRI, more specifically the “Maritime Silk Road.” (Atlantic Council) Panama was the first country to enter into the initiative, and Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico have closely followed along, though not formally entering. Though there has been significant interest, there has not been a significant increase in Chinese economic activity in Latin America.

While the Belt and Road Initiative has been celebrated for the amount of capital it has mobilized, as well as the massive increase in world trade it has facilitated, there have been complaints levied against it, the most serious of which being debt trapping. One of the most notable examples of this happened in Sri Lanka, when as of the end of 2020, the country was 3.5 billion dollars in debt to China. More egregiously, when Sri Lanka could not settle a loan for infrastructure in its Hambantota port, it granted China a 99-year lease to the land. (Wall Street Journal) Sri Lanka’s debt problems have continued to escalate over the past two years, and many critics blame China for this problem- arguing that the infrastructure built does not make up for the massive amounts of debt that Sri Lanka now owes. 

A similar example of this debt trapping happened in Greece, where a Chinese firm bought a controlling interest in the port of Piraeus.

While these claims are certainly serious, there have also been examples of the Belt and Road Initiative proving to be a very smart decision for its host countries. The infrastructure projects can boost trade and foreign direct investment, as well as speed up industrialization and economic growth. (The Diplomat) Many agree that, for Latin America, the Belt and Road Initiative poses a low-risk opportunity for economic growth and greater international cooperation. While to date, nearly twenty agreements have been signed between China and Latin America, there has not been a significant amount of action or capital mobilization. However, now that many of the governments have elected more far-left leaders, there may be more open doors to Chinese influence, not just in the form of the Belt and Road Initiative, in the future.

Historically, the United States has enjoyed a dominant position in terms of influence in Latin America. The new leaders and parties on the left, however, are taking steps to reject that influence and pave a new path that aims to break free of United States geopolitical influence. 

While discussions of economic growth in the region used to be in terms of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and trade deals with the United States, the focus has shifted to talks about China’s purchasing of raw materials and opportunities for foreign investment from China. (Latin American Research Review) This change of discussion has come at the expense of general United States influence, as many recent leaders hold decidedly anti-United States positions. It may be argued that as China rises in international influence, Latin American citizens see it as a more favorable replacement for the United States, given there is not a bloody and resentful history between the two parties. Additionally, for citizens, China has wide-ranging appeal. The left is open to influence because of similar political ideology and anti-American sentiment, and the right is open to investment because they see a large potential for greater economic growth and prosperity.

 

IV.      Recommendations

As the new wave of leftism sweeps much of Latin America, its new leaders face a choice

between two powers. They have a window of opportunity to reshape economic and social change for the region for the foreseeable future. While there have been demonstrated risks to China’s influence in other regions, it poses a great opportunity for Latin America. As China takes steps to be mindful of the sustainability and economic viability of investments, it would be advisable for Latin American leaders to welcome this influence with open arms. There is of course a degree of caution that must be had, but as United States influence wanes in the region, Latin America must see a flow of money into the country. China has proven itself willing to provide this flow and has been successful in boosting economic growth in other regions.

As young people across Latin America look towards their new leaders as heralding a time of great social change and greater liberties, it may be time for Latin America to embark on a new journey of international connectivity beyond its neighbor to the north, something that China can provide by adding Latin America to the new trade routes being carved out. Latin America must only look back a few decades to see viscerally the dangers of United States influence, and already its citizens are turning their backs. When leftism has been threatened in the past by the United States, China offers an opportunity for its development, and for the development of the region as a whole.

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