Explaining the Rise of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)

By Evan Flynn

Abstract

In this literature review I investigate the antecedents and causes of the sudden rise of the Alternative for Germany, a right-wing populist party that has recently entered the German parliament for the first time. The literature discusses several factors, including xenophobia, economic concerns, and issues of dissatisfaction with the current regime. Ultimately, I conclude that among these, anti-immigration attitudes are the most important factor leading to the success of this party and that the other less-important factors should be further investigated. 

The past couple decades have been a turning point in the political landscape of Europe and the world at large – the rise of right-wing populism can be observed across the globe (Halikiopoulou, 2018). In the United States we have seen the rise of Donald Trump and the MAGA movement, while in Europe parties like the Golden Dawn in Greece capture attention. Unlike other European countries, Germany lacked any substantive right-wing movement until recently, culminating in the recent electoral successes of the right-wing populist party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), or, Alternative for Germany (Decker, 2016, pp. 1–2). The literature discusses several different possible factors leading to the sudden success of the AfD, including the European refugee crisis, economic concerns, a new kind of nationalism, and dissatisfaction with the current state of German democracy; it focuses heavily on xenophobia as the main factor behind the AfD’s rise, however, there is also a minor focus on less-important issues, like the economy. To better understand the party’s success, the influence of the economy and other minor antecedents should be further investigated. In this review I will examine the factors that led to the rise of what many believe to be a single-issue, anti-immigration party (Hansen & Olsen, 2020). 

The most popular explanation for the rise of the AfD is the sudden influx of migrants and refugees resulting from the 2015 refugee crisis under the Merkel government. It has been shown that following the refugee crisis, the AfD did significantly better in elections. For instance, following the crisis the AfD received an unprecedented 12.6 percent of the vote in the 2017 German federal election, leading some to believe that the precipitating event for such success was the crisis (Hansen & Olsen, 2019, p. 1). Furthermore, the AfD did significantly well in the eastern states, receiving significant portions of the vote; what’s more, a sizeable share of the AfD’s vote portion in these eastern regions was made up of first-time voters, leading some to believe that the refugee crisis prompted these new voters to vote for the first time, casting their ballot for the AfD (Decker, 2016, p. 10). Moreover, it has been shown that, among AfD voters, the primary reason they chose to vote for the party was anti-immigration attitudes (Hansen & Olsen, 2019, p. 15, 2020, p. 124). In addition, others suspect that the lack of ethnic diversity in former GDR territories, a region where the AfD garners a greater share of the vote, contributes to the party’s greater success in the east (Weisskircher, 2020, p. 619). Finally, the AfD’s use of anti-Islamic rhetoric has been understood to improve its chances of election, driving supporters to the polls (Sterphone, 2020). 

Clearly, immigration is an important interest for AfD voters – they are clearly very motivated by this issue. The AfD has successfully hijacked voters’ fears about immigration stemming from the refugee crisis, using it to propel them to the Bundestag for the first time. Indeed, the most important concern of AfD voters is immigration, which accounts for the largest factor explaining the party’s recent success. 

The AfD has also benefitted from other kinds of grievances, such as ones relating to immigration but stemming from the economy. For instance, most AfD voters are concerned about refugees taking their economic resources (Decker, 2016; Mushaben, 2020). This fear among AfD supporters helps explain the xenophobic attitude they have taken on. Furthermore, others attribute the rise in AfD support to wealth inequality between eastern and western Germany: “easterners remain more sensitive to any gap between the haves and have-nots – especially in light of lower educational levels among AfD sympathizers” (Mushaben, 2020, p. 17). This relative inequality between Western and Eastern Germany likely led some easterners to “harbor abstract fears of future decline in their standard of living, leading to demands that the government spend more on their needs than on those of refugees” (Mushaben, 2020, p. 17). In other words, it seems that the relatively poor economic situation among Eastern Germans has precipitated their aggression against refugees, resulting in the relatively large amount of support for the AfD in Eastern Germany. 

The economy and AfD support can also be correlated with economic issues unrelated to immigration. The party has often utilized the economic divide between west and east in its rhetoric (Weisskircher, 2020, p. 617), which could potentially lead to easterners having a propensity to vote for the AfD. Importantly, it has also been shown that people who vote for the AfD are not necessarily in economically dire situations now, but may have been so in the past. For example, there is a “clear effect of unemployment in 2000 on AfD strength in the east at the federal election seventeen years later, underlining how past experiences with and memories of the dire economic conditions described above have a long-term impact on voting behavior” (Weisskircher, 2020, p. 618). Additionally, it has been shown that uncertainty about one’s future economic situation among easterners has led to greater support for the AfD (Weisskircher, 2020, p. 619). Indeed, the AfD has benefited from purely economic issues, ones that do not directly link to immigration. 

The AfD’s success can also be attributed to a novel form of nationalism dubbed “civic” nationalism. The literature addresses how the AfD has capitalized on a new “civic” form of nationalism, one that uses democratic ideals as a justification for exclusion to garner support (Halikiopoulou, 2018; Sterphone, 2020), which is much more palatable for voters compared with ethno-nationalism, which justifies the exclusion of others on the basis of ethnicity. This new form of nationalism allows the party to justify the exclusion of others while staying consistent with the principles of democracy. 

Finally, the AfD has been particularly successful in the east because of significant portions of easterners feeling dissatisfied with the state of German politics, leading them to support anti-establishment parties, like the AfD (Weisskircher, 2020, pp. 619–620). This highlights how the AfD has benefited from dissatisfaction among easterners, who are seeking an alternative to the status quo regime; the AfD gives them the alternative they desire, explaining the party’s rise, particularly in the east. 

In sum, the AfD has experienced an increase in popularity over the past several years due to several factors. However, some precipitators are more important than others, most notably anti-immigration attitudes. That being said, the party’s success can also be explained by minor factors like Germany’s economic situation and dissatisfaction with the current regime. Indeed, it is likely that the AfD will continue to see success if these issues remain relevant in German society, particularly widespread concern about immigration. 

References

Decker, F. (2016). The “Alternative for Germany:” Factors Behind its Emergence and Profile of a New Right-wing Populist Party. German Politics and Society, 34(2), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.3167/gps.2016.340201

Halikiopoulou, D. (2018). A Right‐wing Populist Momentum? A Review of 2017 Elections Across Europe. JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, 56(S1), 63–73. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.12769

Hansen, M. A., & Olsen, J. (2019). Flesh of the Same Flesh: A Study of Voters for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the 2017 Federal Election. German Politics, 28(1), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1080/09644008.2018.1509312

Hansen, M. A., & Olsen, J. (2020). Pulling up the Drawbridge. German Politics and Society, 38(2), 109–136. https://doi.org/10.3167/gps.2020.380205

Mushaben, J. M. (2020). A Spectre Haunting Europe. German Politics and Society, 38(1), 7–29. https://doi.org/10.3167/gps.2020.380102

Sterphone, J. (2020). The New Nationalism?: Antecedents of the Alternative for Germany’s Islamfeindlichkeit. German Politics and Society, 38(4), 28–50. https://doi.org/10.3167/gps.2020.380402

Weisskircher, M. (2020). The Strength of Far‐Right AfD in Eastern Germany: The East‐West Divide and the Multiple Causes behind ‘Populism.’ The Political Quarterly, 91(3), 614–622. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-923X.12859