Abstract

Myanmar has been locked in a war for over three years, and the conflict has led to a fracturing of the country both socially and politically. The nation is divided along ethnic and ideological lines, making it unlikely for a definitive end to the conflict. As the war continues, it becomes increasingly likely that Myanmar may cease to exist, and a fractured collection of states and ethically controlled regions may become the new normal.

Essay

It began with a not-so-subtle coup by the army, which quickly imprisoned the head of the government, State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, and other officials as they established a military junta to rule the nation on 1 February 2021. Almost immediately, protests broke out, and within months, the country was in a state of civil war. The junta tried to repress any opposition violently. This only added fuel to the fire, especially in rural areas. More than three years on, the civil war rages, and while there seems to be chinks in the junta's armor, it has not cracked yet.

It is important to understand that since gaining independence in 1948, the country only had a democratic form of government and institutions until 1962. From that point on, the military ruled the country with an iron fist. There were two glimmers of hope. The first was in 1990 when the National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Aung San Suu Kyi, won over 80% of the seats in parliament. The military refused to let go of power, and while she was already under house arrest, she would remain so until 2010. It would take another five years and creative coalition-building before Aung San Suu Kyi and her party would be given a chance to govern the country (Center for Preventive Action, 2024).

Despite the elections, the military held on to the majority of the leavers of power and began a brutal campaign of repression against the Muslim minority in the northernmost province of Kachin. This escalation of violence and what could be considered as ethnic cleansing was the spark that started the civil war. Ethnic and religious tensions have long been a part of the nation's history, the Buddhist majority has long been at odds with the Muslim and Christian minorities. Tension has always been deep between Buddhists and Muslims in the country, and a series of violent outbursts in the region gave the military the excuse they wanted to step in.

By 2016, the crimes committed by the military were well known. While many expected Aung San Suu Kyi to step up and speak out, she initially defended them before the U.N. While many called her a hypocrite after spending her life calling out the brutality of the junta that used similarly brutal tactics against countless innocent dissidents. They did not understand the predicament that she and the rest of the civilian government were in. A democratically elected government held power for the first time in decades, though not much. It was a precarious situation to aggressively and outwardly challenge those who had barely given up any power only a few years earlier. She was trying to hold together a nation that was on the brink of shattering (Maizland, 2022).

Her efforts were in vain. As the civil war continues, Myanmar has been divided along ethnic, cultural, religious, and political lines. Communists, government dissidents, ethnic militias, and insurgents from decades of fighting with the military forces have come together to form a loose coalition to defeat the junta. The only thing that these forces share in common is the desire to defeat their shared enemy (Paliwal, 2024). Beyond that, each has their own desires for either self-governance or taking on the role of the new political power in the country once the war is over. There are no clear winners in the group, and factionalization is widespread.

Government forces are losing control in more towns and regional centers as the conflict continues, but this likely will not be the beginning of the end of the civil war but the closing of the first chapter. It will take a coalition of parties and a diverse group of people from across the fractured land to create a lasting national government (Hein, 2024). The first step must be defeating the military forces that have had a stranglehold on the country from the very beginning. It is a task that the people of Myanmar must decide they want to undertake, but it does not mean they shouldn't have any outside help.

Wars have no definite ends. Fighting between armies or insurgents does not mean the conflict is over; it has only gone on to a new stage. This fate awaits Myanmar if the infighting and factionalization continue, but also so long as the international community does not step in. Failed states are not those whose people have been shattered and given up but those the world either projected their desires onto or kept them from realizing their own. The civil war will prove this reality yet again for the world unless something is done about it. As a bridge between India and China, geographically and economically, Myanmar has incredible potential economically and socially, but that remains to be seen so long as despots and war reign in the country.