Introduction

“Through AUKUS, our governments will strengthen the ability of each to support our security and defense interests, building on our longstanding and ongoing bilateral ties. We will promote deeper information and technology sharing. We will foster deeper integration of security and defense-related science, technology, industrial bases, and supply chains. And in particular, we will significantly deepen cooperation on a range of security and defense capabilities.”

• Joint Statement between the leaders of Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States

The ideological differences between the United States and China, which have amplified tensions between the two states, have contributed to establishing a world order akin to the Cold War era. These two powers are dominating the world stage, and have been contributing to an increasingly unstable bipolar international power structure, with conflicts over matters such as international trade, the sovereignty of Taiwan, and nuclear weapons advancements attracting concerns from multiple other powers.

The United States and United Kingdom have recently brokered a trilateral security partnership with Australia, which, among others, includes that the latter be supplied with at least eight nuclear-powered submarines to deploy in the South Pacific. The signing of the treaty came as a shock to France, who was originally going to be a partner in the deal. This alliance is representative of the intensification of hostilities between China and the United States, as well as of an apparent fracture of the alliance system in the West.

AUKUS

The partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States (AUKUS) was announced in mid-September 2021. This diffusal of technology is significant as it represents the first time the United States and United Kingdom are disseminating nuclear technology to another nation. The deal represents a break in the former agreement between Australia and France, which promised to supply Australia with diesel powered submarines. Australia is essential to the West’s strategic positioning, due to its geographic location in the region, as well as being one of its only representatives.

The fact that these submarines are nuclear powered is also significant, as they are able to remain submerged for longer periods of time than conventional ones. This enables greater freedom to operate without detection, promising better chances of security and potential for covert attacks. Additionally, submarines are often used to establish a secure second strike capability for nuclear powers to be able to survive an initial attack and retaliate, enabling deterrence. Even though the particular submarines which are being developed as part of AUKUS are not armed with nuclear weapons, they are still nuclear powered and contain enriched uranium.

Significance for International Relations

The AUKUS agreement represents a chink in the formerly solid armor of the Western alliance system. The souring of relations between the AUKUS triad and France was vocal and visible, with French ambassadors being recalled from the nations and harsh words being traded between world leaders. France has also taken measures  to increase its partnership with Indonesia - a mutually beneficial arrangement: Indonesia desires to increase its military capabilities, and France is seeking another ally in the area for strategic defense possibilities. Considering the significant threat posed by a rising China equipped with nuclear weapons, solidarity in the West is needed to adequately challenge it.

The deal has also been declared by many as being a blow to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), whichxplicitly bans signatories from transferring nuclear weapons and technology to non-nuclear states. Even though AUKUS does not currently violate the NPT due to the controlled nuclear power used in submarine technology, it appears to normalize the spread of nuclear technology to other nations. This may also signal to other nuclear powers that the dissemination of this technology to non-nuclear powers is acceptable, enabling proliferation and increasing the chances of nuclear leakage.

The move by the AUKUS trio is largely being seen as a measure to counter China’s nuclear capabilities in the region, as well as prevent Chinese expansion, to which Beijing has, predictably, responded negatively. At present, its power is relatively unchecked in the South Pacific, displaying significant dominance over other countries.  In this sense, the three powers involved have been accused of supposedly disrupting peace in the area, as well as further driving the already occurring arms race. China has also issued vocal threats which seem to promise retaliation before cooperation. 

Given the country’s threats and ominous growing power, the West perceives the need to take steps to promote its interests and defense in the region. China’s recent surveillance in Australia’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), as well as continued activity in the South China Sea, is representative of its seeking to increase preponderance in the area. Seeing this occur unconstrained could pose a threat to maintaining the conditions of international maritime law, as well as the possibility of international cooperation and communication.

While the AUKUS partnership may view its actions as increasing security and policing the Indo-Pacific area, it may further increase hostilities. While the divide between the West and China is primarily a silent and dormant one, this move is a visible and direct action which signals the possibility of direct confrontation and conflict. The West is attempting to maintain its balance of power in the international system with the use of this strategic alliance, but the action may lead to modelling the security dilemma, where measures taken to increase security may create greater militarization and therefore greater instability.

Conclusion

The AUKUS agreement represents a crack in the formerly strong foundation of the Western alliance system, as well as a direct symbol of increasing hostilities between the United States and China. Growing division and devolution of the liberal international order will likely lead to future challenges in brokering arrangements for peace and security, as well as the West defending its interests.